I must say that I’m disappointed by the findings from the detailed look at Kurzweil’s predictions. His almost utopian view of a future in which information technology cures a vast number of society’s ills is so enticing. I so WANT to believe in that future.
But its leading proponent has gotten so much wrong, even on his predictions that were only 10 years out from the writing of his book. There is no doubt that information technology has changed our world and its world-changing impacts are still largely ahead of us, but that doesn’t mean they are moving in the direction that Kurzweil says they are moving.
Kurzweil is excellent at refuting the theoretical arguments of his critics. He does this brilliantly in “The Singularity is Near.” However, he can’t argue with the facts. He was pretty off about his 2009 predictions. He’ll likely be more off by 2019. He remains an interesting thinker and promoter (I can’t wait to see his new movie), but he simply can’t predict the future any better than most of the prognosticators that have gone before him.